| Tim | Talbot | Ryan | Brendan | Larry | Justin | Jordan | AJ | Scott | Nick | Ronnie | Evan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.01Derrick Henry−6 | 1.02Christian McCaffrey−24 | 1.03Dalvin Cook−6 | 1.04Alvin Kamara−6 | 1.05Ezekiel Elliott−3 | 1.06Aaron Jones−5 | 1.07Nick Chubb−7 | 1.08Saquon Barkley−20 | 1.09Jonathan Taylor+8 | 1.10Antonio Gibson−3 | 1.11Najee Harris+7 | 1.12Tyreek Hill−4 |
| 2 | 2.12Justin Jefferson+5 | 2.11DK Metcalf−14 | 2.10Calvin Ridley−51 | 2.09Davante Adams0 | 2.08Chris Carson−30 | 2.07Joe Mixon+11 | 2.06Darren Waller−7 | 2.05Clyde Edwards-Helaire−19 | 2.04Stefon Diggs−7 | 2.03Travis Kelce−1 | 2.02DeAndre Hopkins−24 | 2.01Austin Ekeler+10 |
| 3 | 3.01Patrick Mahomes−4 | 3.02Gus Edwards | 3.03Terry McLaurin−13 | 3.04George Kittle0 | 3.05Lamar Jackson−7 | 3.06A.J. Brown−25 | 3.07Mike Davis−15 | 3.08CeeDee Lamb−3 | 3.09James Robinson−2 | 3.10Josh Jacobs−2 | 3.11Miles Sanders−17 | 3.12David Montgomery−4 |
| 4 | 4.12Julio Jones−43 | 4.11D'Andre Swift+10 | 4.10Kareem Hunt−8 | 4.09Allen Robinson II−39 | 4.08Amari Cooper−10 | 4.07Keenan Allen−1 | 4.06Chris Godwin+5 | 4.05Dak Prescott−6 | 4.04Kyle Pitts0 | 4.03Kyler Murray−8 | 4.02Mark Andrews+3 | 4.01Mike Evans+3 |
| 5 | 5.01Mike Gesicki0 | 5.02Adam Thielen+2 | 5.03Josh Allen+3 | 5.04Javonte Williams+8 | 5.05Damien Harris+7 | 5.06Robert Woods−10 | 5.07DJ Moore+2 | 5.08Tyler Lockett+9 | 5.09Justin Herbert+3 | 5.10Tee Higgins−2 | 5.11Tom Brady+6 | 5.12Diontae Johnson+13 |
| 6 | 6.12Matthew Stafford+7 | 6.11Ryan Tannehill−2 | 6.10Raheem Mostert−25 | 6.09Darrell Henderson Jr.+8 | 6.08Odell Beckham Jr.−15 | 6.07Aaron Rodgers+3 | 6.06Russell Wilson−6 | 6.05Myles Gaskin+4 | 6.04Chase Claypool−4 | 6.03Cooper Kupp+23 | 6.02Deebo Samuel+20 | 6.01T.J. Hockenson+3 |
| 7 | 7.01Ronald Jones II−16 | 7.02Brandon Aiyuk−10 | 7.03Noah Fant−3 | 7.04Joe Burrow+4 | 7.05Kenny Golladay−24 | 7.06Chase Edmonds−8 | 7.07Courtland Sutton−3 | 7.08Robert Tonyan−7 | 7.09Robby Anderson | 7.10JuJu Smith-Schuster−32 | 7.11Sony Michel−8 | 7.12Jerry Jeudy−26 |
| 8 | 8.12Leonard Fournette+31 | 8.11Zack Moss0 | 8.10Jalen Hurts+6 | 8.09Mike Williams+24 | 8.08Ja'Marr Chase+29 | 8.07Laviska Shenault Jr.−9 | 8.06Trey Sermon−16 | 8.05DeVonta Smith+6 | 8.04James Conner+27 | 8.03Melvin Gordon III+16 | 8.02Tyler Boyd−1 | 8.01Michael Carter+6 |
| 9 | 9.01Brandin Cooks+15 | 9.02Tyler Higbee−2 | 9.03DJ Chark Jr.−23 | 9.04Michael Thomas | 9.05Logan Thomas−4 | 9.06AJ Dillon+15 | 9.07Marquez Callaway+1 | 9.08Michael Gallup−18 | 9.09Jaylen Waddle+22 | 9.10Jarvis Landry−3 | 9.11Jonnu Smith−2 | 9.12Matt Ryan+1 |
| 10 | 10.12Steelers D/STD/ST | 10.11Ravens D/STD/ST | 10.10Alexander Mattison+7 | 10.09Marvin Jones Jr.+16 | 10.08Tony Pollard+16 | 10.07Dallas Goedert+6 | 10.06Rams D/STD/ST | 10.05Marquise Brown+29 | 10.04Buccaneers D/STD/ST | 10.03Kenyan Drake+4 | 10.02Corey Davis+5 | 10.01Antonio Brown+3 |
| 11 | 11.01Devin Singletary+11 | 11.02William Fuller V | 11.03DeVante Parker−3 | 11.04Latavius Murray0 | 11.05Commanders D/STD/ST | 11.0649ers D/STD/ST | 11.07Rob Gronkowski+6 | 11.08Baker Mayfield−1 | 11.09Darnell Mooney+23 | 11.10Patriots D/STD/ST | 11.11James White−8 | 11.12David Johnson+1 |
| 12 | 12.12Allen Lazard+6 | 12.11Hunter Henry+5 | 12.10Jakobi Meyers+18 | 12.09Henry Ruggs III+5 | 12.08Michael Pittman Jr.+34 | 12.07Trevor Lawrence−1 | 12.06T.Y. Hilton−9 | 12.05Colts D/STD/ST | 12.04Jamaal Williams+6 | 12.03Nelson Agholor+4 | 12.02Bills D/STD/ST | 12.01Curtis Samuel−14 |
| 13 | 13.01Evan Engram+3 | 13.02Nyheim Hines+5 | 13.03Phillip Lindsay−1 | 13.04Mac Jones+2 | 13.05Rhamondre Stevenson+8 | 13.06Ty'Son Williams+2 | 13.07A.J. Green+25 | 13.08Blake Jarwin−1 | 13.09Russell Gage+15 | 13.10Cole Beasley+23 | 13.11Mecole Hardman+15 | 13.12Tevin Coleman+1 |
| 14 | 14.12DeSean Jackson+12 | 14.11Rashod Bateman+9 | 14.10Browns D/STD/ST | 14.09Saints D/STD/ST | 14.08Sammy Watkins+6 | 14.07Bryan Edwards+13 | 14.06Travis Etienne Jr. | 14.05J.D. McKissic+25 | 14.04Trey Lance0 | 14.03Eric Ebron+1 | 14.02Rashaad Penny+5 | 14.01Chiefs D/STD/ST |
Rounds down, seats across in the order the room drafted. The 2021 record was seeded from ESPN rather than the commissioner’s own sheet and carries no positions (its defenses aside, which name themselves), so the grid is uncoloured and the runs and shapes below are not drawn.
Not drawn: the 2021 record carries no positions beyond its defenses.
Not drawn: the 2021 record carries no positions beyond its defenses.
None. Nothing on the 2021 board was kept.
None. Every seat used its own picks in 2021.
Every selection scored by where it finished among that season’s drafted players at its position, against where it was taken: the eighth back off the board who gave the second-best back season is +6. Within a position, within a season, against the eleven other people in the room — never against a projection nobody here ever saw. A keeper is a price, not a call, and is not graded. A player with no stat line is counted, never zeroed.
Three columns, always together. Surplus is the record. Adjusted is a model, and says so: the same selections with injury luck neutralised — a man is credited only the weeks he missed to injury beyond what he was priced to miss, at his own points per game, and the whole pool is re-ranked on the result. Nothing is ever debited: a man who missed exactly his price keeps his record grade, unforgiven. This season every man is priced at his position’s own rate — QB 1.4, RB 2.0, WR 1.8, TE 2.2 weeks, measured on this league’s own boards 2021–2024 — and a rookie at the rookie rate, because the availability model did not beat that rate out of sample and the plan said in advance what happens then. Risk taken is a fact about the draft, fixed from Week 1: every slot’s price weighted by where it was taken, the first pick in full and the last for one part in 168. With every price at a positional rate it moves only with how much early capital went to backs and tight ends, and this sentence is here so nobody reads more into it than that. The widest gap on the board is Ryan’s: −99 on the field, −30 on health.
The adjusted board is a full re-rank, so pardoning one seat’s injured back can move another seat’s healthy back down a rank and cost him a point he did not lose on the field. That is the question the column answers — who drafted best in a world where injury luck was neutral — and in that world other people’s players are better too.
| Seat | Graded | Surplus | Per pick | Adjusted model | Risk taken | Best call | Worst call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott | 12 | +91 | +7.6 | +75 | 10.7 | James Conner, 8.04: RB33 -> RB6 (+27) | Stefon Diggs, 2.04: WR3 -> WR10 (-7) |
| Brendan | 12 | +22 | +1.8 | +4 | 12.2 | Mike Williams, 8.09: WR36 -> WR12 (+24) | Allen Robinson II, 4.09: WR15 -> WR54 (-39) |
| Tim | 13 | +21 | +1.6 | +5 | 12.3 | Leonard Fournette, 8.12: RB36 -> RB5 (+31) | Julio Jones, 4.12: WR16 -> WR59 (-43) |
| Nick | 13 | +20 | +1.5 | 0 | 12.7 | Cooper Kupp, 6.03: WR24 -> WR1 (+23) | JuJu Smith-Schuster, 7.10: WR30 -> WR62 (-32) |
| Larry | 13 | +7 | +0.5 | −8 | 12.1 | Michael Pittman Jr., 12.08: WR52 -> WR18 (+34) | Chris Carson, 2.08: RB15 -> RB45 (-30) |
| Ronnie | 13 | +1 | +0.1 | +3 | 12.8 | Deebo Samuel, 6.02: WR23 -> WR3 (+20) | DeAndre Hopkins, 2.02: WR2 -> WR26 (-24) |
| AJ | 13 | −2 | -0.1 | +10 | 12.2 | Marquise Brown, 10.05: WR45 -> WR16 (+29) | Saquon Barkley, 1.08: RB8 -> RB28 (-20) |
| Evan | 13 | −7 | -0.5 | +25 | 12.0 | Diontae Johnson, 5.12: WR22 -> WR9 (+13) | Jerry Jeudy, 7.12: WR31 -> WR57 (-26) |
| Justin | 13 | −9 | -0.7 | −26 | 12.5 | AJ Dillon, 9.06: RB37 -> RB22 (+15) | A.J. Brown, 3.06: WR9 -> WR34 (-25) |
| Talbot | 11 | −21 | -1.9 | −21 | 12.1 | D'Andre Swift, 4.11: RB22 -> RB12 (+10) | Christian McCaffrey, 1.02: RB2 -> RB26 (-24) |
| Jordan | 12 | −24 | -2.0 | −37 | 12.6 | A.J. Green, 13.07: WR56 -> WR31 (+25) | Trey Sermon, 8.06: RB34 -> RB50 (-16) |
| Ryan | 13 | −99 | -7.6 | −30 | 12.8 | Jakobi Meyers, 12.10: WR54 -> WR36 (+18) | Calvin Ridley, 2.10: WR5 -> WR56 (-51) |
What the adjusted column gave back, the 12 largest of 58: priced at so many weeks, missed so many to injury, and the difference credited at his healthy rate. ‡ under 3 games played, the rate is the position’s median among drafted players.
| Slot | Seat | Player | Priced | Missed | Games | Rate | Credited | Record → adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.10 | Ryan | Raheem Mostert | 2.0 | 12 | 1 | 11.2‡ | +112.7 | −25 → −3 |
| 10.01 | Evan | Antonio Brown | 1.8 | 8 | 5 | 16.6 | +103.3 | +3 → +34 |
| 2.08 | Larry | Chris Carson | 2.0 | 9 | 4 | 11.3 | +79.3 | −30 → −11 |
| 9.03 | Ryan | DJ Chark Jr. | 1.8 | 9 | 3 | 10.3 | +74.5 | −23 → 0 |
| 1.01 | Tim | Derrick Henry | 2.0 | 5 | 8 | 23.9 | +72.5 | −6 → −1 |
| 11.11 | Ronnie | James White | 2.0 | 10 | 3 | 8.4 | +67.5 | −8 → +6 |
| 1.02 | Talbot | Christian McCaffrey | 2.0 | 6 | 7 | 15.6 | +62.8 | −24 → −9 |
| 11.03 | Ryan | DeVante Parker | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | 10.0 | +52.2 | −3 → +15 |
| 2.10 | Ryan | Calvin Ridley | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | 11.1 | +47.0 | −51 → −36 |
| 9.08 | AJ | Michael Gallup | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | 8.8 | +46.1 | −18 → −3 |
| 9.05 | Larry | Logan Thomas | 2.2 | 7 | 5 | 8.9 | +42.8 | −4 → −1 |
| 4.03 | Nick | Kyler Murray | 1.4 | 3 | 10 | 26.6 | +42.0 | −8 → −4 |
Each line is a seat’s grade through that week; the brightest is the current leader. Since week 13: AJ +1.9, Justin −0.9, Ryan −0.7.
The surplus is the record, not a model: nothing in that column is adjusted for anything. Re-read every morning in season; a rank moves when a stat correction lands, and every movement is a commit.
Drawn from the commissioner’s own 2021 draft record — 168 picks — by the same modules the bot grades from. Nothing on this page is typed in; the runs, the shapes and the ladders are recomputed at each build, and the build refuses a board that fails its own arithmetic. — Office of the Commissioner