The Board
Twelve entered. Two lives each, a margin total for the tiebreak, and no appeal on the second. The Office updates this table with some satisfaction.
- Evan ●○Margin +64 · 6 teams burned
- Mike ●●Margin +52 · 6 teams burned
- Ronnie ●●Margin +47 · 6 teams burned
- Ryan ●○Margin +44 · 6 teams burned
- JD✝ Week 5 · killed by CLEReaps from Week 6
- James✝ Week 5 · killed by DALReaps from Week 6
- Jordan✝ Week 5 · killed by DALReaps from Week 6
- Larry✝ Week 5 · killed by DAL · an auto-pickReaps from Week 6
- Scott✝ Week 5 · killed by DALReaps from Week 6
- Talbot✝ Week 5 · killed by DALReaps from Week 6
- AJ✝ Week 3 · killed by CARReaper points: 1
- Justin✝ Week 2 · killed by BALReaper points: 0
The Slate — Week 6
Locked. Every game somebody is riding, in kickoff order, and what a loss would cost. The Reaping pronounces; this page only watches.
Four riding across two games, two of them on a last life. Twelve more games on the slate with nobody aboard.
- Sun 1:00 PMNYJ at NENE rides Ronnie ●●
- Sun 4:05 PMARI at LALA ride Evan ●○ last life · Mike ●● auto-pick · Ryan ●○ last life auto-pick
The Next Lock
Who has picked, never what. Sealed until every game is somebody’s problem.
The Reveal — Week 5
Flipped at once at the week’s first kickoff. Later weeks’ picks are sealed and are not on this page — nothing unrevealed is ever rendered, including to the commissioner.
| Owner | Rode | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Evan | HOU | W by 23 |
| Mike | CIN | W by 7 |
| Ronnie | HOU | W by 23 |
| Ryan | DAL auto-pick | L by 8 · a life |
| JD | CLE | L by 5 · eliminated |
| James | DAL | L by 8 · eliminated |
| Jordan | DAL | L by 8 · eliminated |
| Larry | DAL auto-pick | L by 8 · eliminated |
| Scott | DAL | L by 8 · eliminated |
| Talbot | DAL | L by 8 · eliminated |
The Graveyard called it: AJ named Scott this week, and scored for being right.
The Burn Grid
Every team, every owner, every burn — public all season, because scarcity is the strategy. A wax cell is a team that cost somebody.
| Owner | ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LA | LAC | LV | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA | SF | TB | TEN | WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mike | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ronnie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ryan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JD | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| James | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jordan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Larry | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Scott | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Talbot | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AJ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Justin |
SCARCITY REPORT — KC is gone for four of the four still breathing. Nobody has touched ARI, which the Office finds revealing.
The Graveyard
The Office writes an obituary for every man it eliminates. The Office enjoys this part. The dead keep playing — one call a week at who dies next, a point for being right, and the standings are kept.
JD
The League Office records with formal indifference the passing of JD’s 2026 survivor campaign, which expired in Week 5 after five weeks of precarious navigation. Having survived four full weeks by riding CHI, KC, PHI, and BAL, JD entrusted his final remaining life to CLE. The decision proved fatal. Though CLE peaked at an 80% chance to win—amplified in the fourth quarter when a fumble recovery yielded a 37 percentage point swing in their favor—the operation collapsed in a 12-17 defeat to NYJ. The defining blow arrived at the 03:52 mark of the fourth quarter on a 1-yard run by B. Allen; CLE held a 34% chance to win going into the play and never saw a better-than-even probability again. With a 5-point margin sealing the result, JD’s second life is extinguished, leaving him with no next week to manage. May his remaining lineup decisions reflect a somewhat higher standard of caution.
Survived 4 full weeks · teams ridden: CHI, KC, PHI, BAL, CLE · called by nobody
James
The League Office formally records the demise of James’s 2026 survivor campaign, which ceased breathing in Week 5 after four full weeks of miraculous, unearned survival. The official cause of death: trusting the Dallas Cowboys. Having already expended his first life, James entrusted his second and final breath to Dallas, who dutifully fell 16-24 to Tampa Bay. Despite peaking at a 71% chance to win, the finality arrived in the fourth quarter when a Dak Prescott pass intended for Jake Ferguson was intercepted by Alex Anzalone. Earlier, in the third quarter, a holding penalty on Bucky Irving’s run marked the precise moment Dallas’s win probability dipped below even, never to recover. James previously rode Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Chicago, but this 8-point margin closes the ledger. There is no next week. The casket is sealed, and the constitution offers no resurrection.
Survived 4 full weeks · teams ridden: JAX, TB, DET, CHI, DAL · called by nobody
Jordan
It is my official and solemn duty to record that Jordan’s 2026 survivor pool campaign has breathed its last in Week 5. Having already expended his first life, Jordan entrusted his final breath to Dallas, who proceeded to collapse 16-24 against Tampa Bay. The path to this quiet grave was laid in stages: victory with Detroit, a foray with Carolina in Week 2, Kansas City, and Buffalo, before the Cowboys brought the curtain down. The tragedy reached its turning point in the third quarter when a holding penalty against Tampa Bay somehow extinguished Dallas’s final moment above a fifty-percent win probability, but the definitive blow landed at 01:22 in the fourth. There, with Dallas still clinging to a seventy-one percent peak win chance, a pass intended for Jake Ferguson was intercepted by Alex Anzalone at the 12-yard line, a seventeen-point swing that sealed an eight-point defeat. Jordan survived four full weeks. The grave is closed; the constitution offers no third chance.
Survived 4 full weeks · teams ridden: DET, CAR, KC, BUF, DAL · called by nobody
Larry
The League Office records with heavy, bureaucratic solemnity the passing of Larry’s 2026 survivor entry, which perished in Week 5 after four full weeks of flickering life. Having previously used DET, TB, KC, and BAL, Larry entrusted his final breath to an auto-pick—a cold, unfeeling algorithm that hitched his soul to Dallas. The Cowboys peaked at a 71% win probability before collapsing into a 16-24 defeat against Tampa Bay. The dagger landed in the third quarter when a Bucky Irving run—despite a holding penalty—sunk Dallas below a 35% chance to win, a threshold they would never cross again. The absolute end arrived with 1:22 remaining in the fourth, as a Dakota Prescott pass intended for Jake Ferguson was intercepted by Alex Anzalone, shifting win probability 17 percentage points against Dallas and sealing an 8-point death sentence. His second and final life is extinguished. May his waivers be merciful.
Survived 4 full weeks · teams ridden: DET, TB, KC, BAL, DAL · called by nobody
Scott
We gather here in Week 5 to mark the final, irreversible cessation of Scott’s survivor campaign, which expired the exact second Dak Prescott placed a short middle pass directly into the waiting hands of Alex Anzalone at the Tampa Bay 12-yard line. That 17-point win probability swing was the lethal blow, though truth be told, the pulse had been fading ever since a third-quarter offensive holding penalty on Graham Barton somehow drained the last remaining life out of Dallas’s chances. Scott carried this entry through four full weeks on the backs of the Chargers, 49ers, Chiefs, and Ravens, only to hitch his final mortal coil to a Cowboys squad that surrendered a 16-24 decision and an 8-point margin to the Buccaneers. He had reached a 71% win probability before reality set in. The Graveyard correctly foretold this demise, AJ collects his point, and the League Office files the death certificate without emotion. Requiescat in pace.
Survived 4 full weeks · teams ridden: LAC, SF, KC, BAL, DAL · called by AJ, correctly
Talbot
It is my solemn, constitutionally mandated duty to register the passing of Talbot’s 2026 survivor campaign, which expired peacefully in Week 5 after surviving precisely 4 full weeks on the back of BAL, TB, KC, and MIN. The official cause of death was an uninspired reliance on DAL, who fell 16-24 to TB by a margin of 8. The end was unnecessarily dramatic: DAL peaked at a 71% chance to win before the dagger struck in Q3 at 10:43, after which they never held a better-than-even chance again. The terminal blow arrived in Q4 at 01:22, when a Dak Prescott pass intended for Jake Ferguson was intercepted by Alex Anzalone, swinging win probability 17 percentage points in an instant. This was Talbot’s second and final life—the first having already been surrendered—and there are no further lives in the ledger. The League Office offers its formal, utterly indifferent condolences.
Survived 4 full weeks · teams ridden: BAL, TB, KC, MIN, DAL · called by nobody
AJ
The League Office formally records the demise of AJ’s survivor campaign, which concluded in Week 3 of the 2026 season. Having already expended his first life, AJ staked his second and final existence on CAR, only to watch them fall 18-21 to CLE. It was a tragedy in several acts: after riding PHI in Week 1 and TB in Week 2, AJ trusted a franchise that peaked at a 78% win probability before collapsing. The fatal descent began in the fourth quarter at 01:55, when a 14-yard touchdown pass to H. Fannin swung the math by 23 percentage points against him. The absolute dagger fell at 01:48 on a successful two-point conversion by D. Watson to D. Boston, leaving CAR with a meager 36% win probability from which they never recovered. AJ survives 2 full weeks, leaving behind only the memory of a fatal wager on the Panthers.
Survived 2 full weeks · teams ridden: PHI, TB, CAR · called by nobody
Justin
We gather beneath the cold, humming servers of Railway to mark the passing of the survivor campaign of Justin. His demise was registered in Week 2, a swift and merciless end after surviving precisely 1 week. The official cause of death was a catastrophic fourth-quarter collapse by BAL, who fell 17-24 to NO. Justin, having already surrendered his first life, watched his second evaporate after BAL surrendered a 90% peak win probability. The critical wound occurred at 04:55 in the fourth quarter when a short right pass to K.Austin moved BAL below a better-than-even chance to win, followed by the final blow at 02:03: a 25-yard pass to J.Johnson coupled with a roughing the passer penalty that swung the win probability by 18 percentage points against BAL. Having ridden LAC in Week 1, Justin chose BAL in Week 2, only to have the 7-point margin seal his departure to the graveyard.
Survived 1 full week · teams ridden: LAC, BAL · called by nobody
The Season So Far
Results come from the committed schedule projection; where it cannot speak, this page shows a dash rather than a guess.